Climate change will mean more city fires
Scientists say statistics show that warming climate will result not only in more vegetation fires but also more urban fires. Fire incidence data was collected from 20 countries, categorised into fire type, then statistically correlated to climatic conditions (monthly air temperatures from 2 800 cities) and to climate change models. The authors note with regret that, despite efforts, no data was obtained from Africa or South America so that results are only directly representative of the rest of the world. Conclusions are that urban fire frequencies increase by over +3% for +1°C global warming with a disproportionately higher increase in fire deaths and injuries (+ 1/3 million fire deaths and +1.1 million injuries with global warming of +4°C). These numbers are surprising given that increasing temperature is correlated (in some cases) to more outdoor fires and vehicle fires but fewer building fires.
“City fires likely to increase with climate change – Expert Reaction”, New Zealand Science Media Centre SMC, 4th March 2025 https://www.sciencemediacentre.co.nz/2025/03/04/city-fires-likely-to-increase-with-climate-change-expert-reaction/
“Increasing fire risks in cities worldwide under warming climate”, L. Shi et al., Nature Cities, vol. 2, March 2025, 254-264 https://doi.org/10.1038/s44284-025-00204-2
